Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?

The market has experienced severe downward price movement, declining 20 percentage points over seven days from 64¢ to 44¢, suggesting recent data or ECB communications have reduced expectations for a 25 bps hike. The extremely high implied yields (834% for Yes, 515% for No) combined with modest $52k daily volume and $3.2M open interest indicate thin liquidity relative to the outsized leverage available, creating potential slippage risk for larger positions. With 56 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,372%, this market remains highly unstable and information-sensitive, particularly vulnerable to ECB guidance or eurozone inflation data releases.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

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