What is the current probability for "Will Sevilla qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on August 31, 2026. 125 days remaining.

Will Sevilla qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Sevilla qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026.

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46¢

Bid/Ask —/92¢·Spread 92¢·Vol $0·OI $12.957·Closes Aug 31, 2026·125d remaining

0xcbfd3a3c8b0413e50b8df2aeb2a13de2b862a99013a6124d08c4fe209287e105

7-day price585 snapshots · 3 regime

48¢44¢ current

Apr 2527¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or LaLiga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 357.0%

IY (No) 239.0%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 2352%

VR 11.35

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	357.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	239.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2352%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	11.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	10.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	5.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.98	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/28/2026, 1:17:30 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 1:08:53 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xcbfd3a3c8b0413e50b8df2aeb2a13de2b862a99013a6124d08c4fe209287e105 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →