Will Mike Rounds be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?
0xcd58e9234a761b8bf35b7b58231f085366cb7870bdc7392ae4f5464f3ac5cd14 · closes Jun 28, 2026 · 74 days remaining
Price
Last
94¢
Bid
94¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$10,567.342
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 31.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 7725.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 16 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 3822% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
4 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/14/2026, 11:47:58 PM
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Dakota. If no 2026 South Dakota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xcd58e9234a761b8bf35b7b58231f085366cb7870bdc7392ae4f5464f3ac5cd14 yes 100