Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?

The Republican contract at 74¢ reflects a strong GOP lean in OH-15, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $11,215 in open interest, making the price potentially unreliable. The extreme 517.7% implied yield on the "No" side suggests the market may be mispriced or thinly traded, as such asymmetric yields typically indicate insufficient liquidity to support the quoted prices. With 201 days until expiration and a 6-cent price rise over the past week, this market warrants caution—the high realized volatility (116%) and elevated cliff risk (3/10) indicate significant uncertainty despite the seemingly confident Republican pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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