Will SpaceX raise between $100B and $110B in its IPO?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.37M, with a 37¢ spread indicating significant pricing uncertainty and a realized volatility of 1979% reflecting wild swings since the 7-day price surge from 1¢ to 20¢. The 19¢ price implies only a 19% probability of SpaceX raising $100-110B, suggesting market skepticism about this specific valuation band, though the low 24-hour volume of $0 means this price may not reflect actual trading depth. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and an info arrival rate of just 0.3/h, the market appears relatively dormant and vulnerable to sharp repricing on any concrete IPO announcement or valuation guidance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade