How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
202 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?: 70-80B
0x404887…8a94
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that SpaceX will raise between $90-100 billion in its initial public offering. The 33% aggregate reflects meaningful disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 60% while Polymarket traders estimate 27%, suggesting uncertainty about both SpaceX's valuation appetite and regulatory environment. The probability level hinges on two primary factors: SpaceX's operational performance in 2026, particularly launch cadence and profitability metrics that would support a high-end valuation, and broader capital markets conditions that determine investor appetite for high-valuation aerospace companies. The most consequential catalyst will be any official IPO announcement with terms and timing, which would shift this from speculative probability to concrete market price discovery. Until then, quarterly financial performance and launch success rates remain key indicators traders monitor.
- ›SpaceX's 2026 launch count relative to market expectations—traders are pricing Above 120 launches at 95¢ on Kalshi, suggesting confidence in execution baseline
- ›Aggregate market capitalization valuation required for a $90-100B IPO raise—implies total company valuation of roughly $200-250B depending on dilution assumptions
- ›Capital markets conditions in late 2026—broader equity market sentiment and demand for mega-cap IPOs will constrain or enable fundraising at the upper range
- ›Evidence of SpaceX profitability or path to profitability before IPO filing—venture and public markets weight margin trajectory heavily in aerospace valuations
- ›Regulatory approval timeline and any national security clearances required for an IPO of a company with defense contracts
What moved the line
- Jun 870-80B↑15pp76→91¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 970-80B↑4pp91→95¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1270-80B↑3pp97→100¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?: >$1.6Tlast 89% · 2d
- Which exchange will SpaceX list on?: NASDAQlast 96% · 2d
- In which month will SpaceX IPOlast 97% · 2d
- SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)last 97% · 2d
- When will SpaceX IPOlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
Anthropic Leads the AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Looms
The market for the best AI model by end of June has solidified around Anthropic (86¢), while contracts on a GPT-5.6 release before July 31 are trading at 97%. This points to a major inflection point in the AI wars, with traders betting on a direct competitive response from Anthropic.
Anthropic Dominates AI Model Race as GPT-5.6 Release Nears
Anthropic's Claude is now a 92¢ favorite to be the best AI model at end of June, while GPT-5.6 release odds jumped 7¢ to 24% for a June 15 launch. The AI benchmark leaderboard is shifting rapidly.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.