Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

The 38¢ price implies a 38% probability for Alcaraz winning the 2026 US Open, offering a notably asymmetric risk-adjusted yield of 200% with the Yes side showing an extreme 399.8% implied yield—suggesting significant underpricing relative to the No side's 150.2%. Despite $24M in open interest, the market shows minimal activity with only $4.88K in 24-hour volume and a tight 2¢ spread, indicating low liquidity that could amplify slippage on larger positions. With 149 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the stagnant price action (flat at 38¢ over 7 days) combined with the high implied yield skew warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine market inefficiency or illiquidity-driven mispricing.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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