Will Elon register any party before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Elon register any party before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 16¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in Elon registering a party, yet the 743% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial asymmetric upside for believers, particularly given the 258-day timeframe and moderate $9.8M open interest.
Analysis
The 16¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in Elon registering a party, yet the 743% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial asymmetric upside for believers, particularly given the 258-day timeframe and moderate $9.8M open interest. The 5.19 volatility ratio and 1406% realized volatility indicate this market experiences sharp price swings despite thin 24-hour volume of just $12.59, making the 5¢ spread relatively wide and suggesting low liquidity could amplify moves on any credible news about Musk's political intentions. With a cliff risk index of 5 and 4.2 info arrivals per hour, this market is sensitive to Musk's public statements or political activity, though the neutral regime score suggests no imminent catalyst is priced in.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcfe0bbe16e82c44f353e8e28eb627947848ec164c17c5b7124a0c1d158ed8126 yes 100