Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $744k open interest, and the 53¢ spread (143% of mid-price) signals severe pricing uncertainty. The 240% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated by the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine market conviction, especially given the low 37¢ price and neutral regime score. With 259 days to expiry and only 1.9 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal trading activity rather than an actively discovered market price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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