Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of April?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position at 90¢ implying a 90% probability, yet the No side offers a nonsensical 28,920% annualized yield—a clear arbitrage signal that the No contract is severely undervalued. With only 11 days to expiration and zero 24-hour volume despite $8.5M open interest, the 18¢ spread indicates illiquidity that likely prevents rational traders from correcting this imbalance. The 7-day price decline from 97¢ to 90¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 9 suggests late-stage volatility and potential resolution uncertainty, making this market unreliable for directional bets despite the superficially high Yes probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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