Will the Republican Party win the WI-08 House seat?

This Wisconsin 8th district market shows extremely asymmetric risk with the No side offering a 644.9% implied yield versus just 51.3% for Yes, despite the Republican favorite holding a dominant 78% probability. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,962 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity that may not reflect true market sentiment, making the outsized No yield potentially misleading rather than indicative of genuine opportunity. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a relatively stable market awaiting more trading activity and real campaign developments to establish price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade