Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026?

The 80¢ price reflects strong conviction that Trump and Lula will meet in 2026, yet the dramatically asymmetric implied yields (35.4% for Yes vs. 566% for No) suggest the No position offers exceptional risk-adjusted returns, indicating potential overpricing of the baseline scenario. With only $25.36 in 24-hour volume against $3.2M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating execution risk and potential for sharp repricing if new information arrives—particularly given the elevated 137% realized volatility and 0.9 info arrivals per hour. The 7-cent spread and neutral regime score (0.477) suggest the market is relatively stable, but the 258-day timeframe and cliff risk index of 4 leave substantial room for geopolitical developments to shift probabilities materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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