Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

The 43¢ price reflects a modest 43% win probability for Valencia with just 65 days to expiry, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 745% signals severe mispricing or extreme uncertainty about Colombian electoral dynamics. The 7-day decline from 46¢ to 43¢ combined with 202% realized volatility and a low 0.70 vol ratio suggests the market may be overestimating tail risks, particularly given the neutral regime and relatively modest $34K open interest for a major election outcome. With resolution tied to the June 21 runoff date and only 0.6 information arrivals per hour, this market appears thinly traded and potentially vulnerable to late-breaking polling or political developments in the final two months.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Indicators

Regime

Trade