Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. Royce White's Republican primary odds have more than doubled in seven days (3¢ to 7¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $12.9M open interest and an extreme 4,180% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the price movement may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
Royce White's Republican primary odds have more than doubled in seven days (3¢ to 7¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $12.9M open interest and an extreme 4,180% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the price movement may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The 8¢ bid-ask spread and 2,087% realized volatility indicate this is a highly illiquid, speculative position where the asymmetric payoff structure (massive upside vs. modest downside) could be attracting directional bets rather than informed consensus. With 116 days to the August 2026 primary and a neutral regime score, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this 7% probability given the market's structural fragility.
Also on kalshi at 5¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xd67ede2a8455cba13920d995ff5570a40146c6970e6e0a21174682c934c38d29 yes 100