Will the Republican Party win the MN-02 House seat?

This MN-02 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $150k open interest, creating a massive 43¢ bid-ask spread and unreliable price discovery. The 27¢ price implies Republicans are significant underdogs in this district, yet the astronomical 497% implied yield on the Yes side and 1928% realized volatility suggest the market is either mispriced or subject to sporadic, low-volume trades that distort pricing. With 199 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of only 1.7 events per hour, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the current quote should be treated cautiously until meaningful liquidity returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade