Will Terry Francona win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,264 open interest and a massive 66¢ spread, suggesting the 33¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 300% on the yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.3/h), indicating either mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish fair value. The realized volatility of 2551% and vol ratio of 9.88 are unusually elevated, though with such thin liquidity and the price doubling from 16¢ over seven days, these metrics likely reflect sporadic, low-volume trades rather than genuine market uncertainty about Francona's managerial prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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