Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?

The 9¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of Russian capture of Kramatorsk within 74 days, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a 4989% implied yield for "Yes" positions versus just 48.8% for "No"—a 100x differential suggesting significant tail risk premium. Volume of $1.15M against $24.3M open interest indicates moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, though the recent 2-cent decline from 11¢ over seven days suggests modest bearish momentum that may reflect recent battlefield developments. The high Cliff Risk Index of 10 combined with neutral regime scoring warrants caution, as the market's extreme skew could amplify volatility if geopolitical conditions shift rapidly near the June 2026 expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kramatorsk (https://maps.app.goo.gl/TVY1bAwoc98W2L949) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Indicators

Regime

Trade