What is the current probability for "Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 1¢ (1% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on August 4, 2026.

Where can I trade "Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026.

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1¢

Bid/Ask 1/2¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $9,183.596·Closes Aug 4, 2026

0xd8cb370f66378e643a5103179e0e5de54e4fb3c09254563a3fca898cba2736e8

7-day price72 snapshots · 2 regime

4¢1¢ current

Apr 141¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xd8cb370f66378e643a5103179e0e5de54e4fb3c09254563a3fca898cba2736e8 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →