Simple Functions

Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2025.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 1/5¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $11.18·OI $3,291.516·Closes Dec 31, 2025
0xdb4079229e9d571fc8d9ac89317a5a47ee66a40a107d1db0e0cbdba9b464a226
7-day price41 snapshots
4¢3¢ current
Apr 82¢Apr 14
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at —¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.78Close-time delta 8775h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the female name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Female name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025. This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 or if the SSA does not release the 2025 rankings by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Regime

Label
maker
Score
0.295
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 1:41:29 AM
Observability lowEvent type cultural

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xdb4079229e9d571fc8d9ac89317a5a47ee66a40a107d1db0e0cbdba9b464a226 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →