Will Amelia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Amelia be the #1 most popular baby girl name in 2025?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4563% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues Amelia's actual probability of topping 2025 baby name rankings—Amelia has consistently ranked in the top 3 since 2016 and held #1 in 2022-2023.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme mispricing with a 4563% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 4¢ price dramatically undervalues Amelia's actual probability of topping 2025 baby name rankings—Amelia has consistently ranked in the top 3 since 2016 and held #1 in 2022-2023. The zero 24-hour volume and tight $2,251 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, which likely explains both the distressed pricing and the astronomical yield figure that may not reflect true arbitrage opportunity. With 259 days to resolution and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a thin, inactive market where the quoted price should be treated skeptically rather than as a reliable probability estimate.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Amelia is the #1 most popular baby girl name on the Social Security Administration’s list of most popular U.S. baby names in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBABYNAMEGIRL-26DEC-AME yes 100