Will the Republican Party win the WI-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17,364 in open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to manipulation. The implied yield of 2,849.7% for a "Yes" resolution is extraordinarily high—typical of thin markets pricing in either severe mispricing or genuine conviction that Republicans have virtually no chance in this heavily Democratic district. With 201 days to expiry and a modest 1¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold, though the lack of recent trading activity and elevated cliff risk (16) warrant caution about relying on this price for serious decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade