Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

The 4¢ price reflects extremely low market confidence in Israeli annexation of Gaza within 74 days, though the massive 11,850% implied yield on "Yes" positions indicates substantial asymmetric payoff potential for contrarian bettors willing to accept 96% downside risk. With $16.4M in open interest but only $120K daily volume, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger trades. The stable price over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market has settled into consensus, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the geopolitical volatility and compressed timeframe to resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the Gaza Strip that they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law. Instances where Israeli settlers claim administrative control over land in the Gaza Strip without formal annexation will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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