Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9 · closes May 19, 2026 · 34 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 459.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2503.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.04 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 140% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.64 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2396% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
41 indicator snapshots · 20 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9 yes 100