Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat?

This market prices Democratic victory in PA-05 at an extremely high 92% probability with a stark asymmetry: the implied yield for "No" positions reaches an extraordinary 2,091.8%, suggesting severe underpricing of Republican chances or minimal liquidity on the short side. The $25.5k open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a relatively illiquid, stale market where the price may not reflect current political conditions, particularly given the 201-day timeframe to the 2026 midterms when significant shifts could occur. The cliff risk index of 12 and the massive divergence between Yes (15.8%) and No (2,091.8%) implied yields warrant caution about relying on this price as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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