Will Kyle Bradish win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Kyle Bradish's 2026 Cy Young odds have surged dramatically from 4¢ to 33¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant positive catalyst—likely his recent performance or injury recovery status—though the 65¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate thin liquidity that may not support the sharp move. The 353% implied yield on the yes side is exceptionally high relative to the neutral regime and modest $1.77M open interest, suggesting either mispricing or that the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about his ability to sustain elite performance through 2026. With 210 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's ample time for the market to recalibrate, but traders should be cautious given the illiquidity and the outsized yield-to-risk profile.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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