Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

The Republican contract has surged 12 cents over seven days to 61¢, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment toward GOP prospects in NC-11, though the extreme realized volatility of 1368% and zero 24-hour volume suggest this illiquid market ($10,167 open interest) may be prone to sharp reversals. The No side's implied yield of 284% is notably elevated compared to the Yes side's 116.1%, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the Republican lean. With 201 days until resolution and a 6¢ spread, this appears to be an early-stage market where information arrival (4.7 events per hour) is still shaping positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade