Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Tunisia's 5-cent price reflects an extremely low 5% implied probability of winning Group F, yet the Yes side shows an extraordinary 9765.5% implied yield versus just 27.1% for No, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns.
Analysis
Tunisia's 5-cent price reflects an extremely low 5% implied probability of winning Group F, yet the Yes side shows an extraordinary 9765.5% implied yield versus just 27.1% for No, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. The $17M open interest against only $104K daily volume suggests thin liquidity with a wide 2-cent spread, making this market vulnerable to manipulation; the modest 4-to-5-cent price movement over seven days and neutral regime score (0.409) don't fully explain the massive yield asymmetry. With 71 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme Yes yield reflects difficulty in obtaining Yes shares rather than genuine probability, making it unreliable for serious prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xeb021bae39c99ec2915555e9463bc6b9f14606da6257adab38ee9eb47b3ee17b yes 100