FIFA World Cup Group F Winner
Leader sits at 54% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Netherlands
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Japan
Spread
26pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
19 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Group F Winner
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the Netherlands will finish first in Group F of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 55% probability suggests traders view the Netherlands as the clear favorite, but not dominant—roughly twice as likely as the second-place candidate (Japan at 27%). The Netherlands' rating likely reflects their UEFA ranking, recent tournament performance, and squad depth compared to Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden. Group composition, head-to-head records, and injury status heading into the tournament drive uncertainty. The outcome resolves on the final group-stage matchday in June 2026, when all remaining matches are played simultaneously. Major shifts would follow official squad announcements, recent international friendlies, or unexpected roster changes.
- ›Netherlands holds an estimated 55% implied probability of topping Group F, compared to Japan at 27%, indicating traders see a significant but not overwhelming edge
- ›The four contracts show wide spreads (Netherlands 55¢ to Tunisia 5¢), suggesting material uncertainty about group outcomes and conditional probabilities
- ›Netherlands' contract maintains the highest 24-hour trading volume ($453) among Group F outcomes, though volumes remain relatively modest (suggesting limited institutional participation)
- ›Japan's 27% probability places it as the primary competitive threat; Japan's performance in warm-up matches and confirmed roster would materially shift the distribution
- ›Group F composition and scheduling (notably which team plays which opponent in each round) affects path-dependent outcomes and strength-of-schedule considerations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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