Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 · closes Jun 30, 2026 · 76 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 691.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 333.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 1.80 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2266% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 9.60 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 5.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 0% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
697 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 yes 100