Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Jacob deGrom win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. DeGrom's 2026 AL Cy Young odds have collapsed 57% over the past week from 14¢ to 6¢, reflecting either deteriorating health expectations or reduced confidence in his competitive viability, though the extreme 2727% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with only $3.2M open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
DeGrom's 2026 AL Cy Young odds have collapsed 57% over the past week from 14¢ to 6¢, reflecting either deteriorating health expectations or reduced confidence in his competitive viability, though the extreme 2727% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with only $3.2M open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 12¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 indicate thin order books and potential execution challenges, making this more of a speculative long-shot bet than a liquid market, with over 200 days until expiration providing ample time for odds recalibration if his injury status changes.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xeb8e70afb7cb9baf07dbee3079d87c0933012ff9491ad177e05afa5532308b6d yes 100