Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely pessimistic view of SpaceX's 2026 Starship cadence at just 10¢, implying only a 10% probability of achieving 9-10 launches to space—a threshold that requires roughly one successful launch every 5-6 weeks. The massive 3396% implied yield on the Yes side combined with extreme realized volatility of 2269% and a wide 17¢ spread suggests either significant uncertainty about SpaceX's near-term launch capabilities or thin liquidity ($213.8 daily volume) driving pricing inefficiency. Given SpaceX has already demonstrated multiple Starship test flights and is ramping production, the market may be underpricing the probability, though the high cliff risk index (24) indicates binary outcome sensitivity that could justify the cautious pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade