Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $21.8K open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 1,845% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely a mispricing artifact—Kentucky's 4th district is a heavily Republican seat (Cook PVI of R+16), making a Democratic win highly improbable, yet the current price seems to undervalue even that already-low probability. With 200 days to expiration and a 10 Cliff Risk Index, this market appears illiquid and potentially vulnerable to manipulation or resolution disputes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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