Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?

The Republican contract at 15¢ implies a heavily favored Democratic hold in NY-22, though the extreme 953% implied yield on the Yes side and 1186% realized volatility suggest significant uncertainty or potential mispricing despite minimal 24-hour volume. With $8,166 in open interest and a 6¢ spread, liquidity is thin, and the neutral regime with a 2.0/hour information arrival rate indicates the market may be underreacting to upcoming campaign developments over the 201 days to expiration. The flat 7-day price action (16¢ to 16¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggests this market could experience sharp repricing as the 2026 midterms approach.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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