Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0xf232b565995e4b3a3e7fa6cef775eeff1cecd20ad7c013cb9fc8dadabfe279a9 · closes Nov 7, 2028 · 937 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 740.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 19 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.00 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2066% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 8.28 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 740% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
24 indicator snapshots · 74 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xf232b565995e4b3a3e7fa6cef775eeff1cecd20ad7c013cb9fc8dadabfe279a9 yes 100