Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?

The Republican contract at 65¢ shows minimal liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $13,038 open interest, making this a thin market vulnerable to price manipulation despite the 8¢ spread. The extreme implied yield differential—97.8% for Yes versus 337.4% for No—signals severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about a competitive race, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market hasn't yet digested new information. With 201 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.2 events per hour, this market remains early-stage and illiquid, making it suitable primarily for informed traders willing to accept execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade