Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely narrow outcome (210-214 seats) at just 4¢, implying only a 4% probability despite Republicans currently holding 222 seats—making this range only 8-12 seats away from the status quo.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely narrow outcome (210-214 seats) at just 4¢, implying only a 4% probability despite Republicans currently holding 222 seats—making this range only 8-12 seats away from the status quo. The astronomical 4434% implied yield on "Yes" combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $386 and a 12.02 volatility ratio suggests severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the market likely undervaluing a scenario that requires relatively modest Democratic gains of just 8-12 seats over two years. The price has declined from 5¢ to 4¢ over seven days while maintaining a 24 cliff risk index, indicating this narrow band may be systematically underestimated compared to broader Republican seat range markets on other venues.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf301c0842eeb33bd0a7718e4775bfb98b326a28bf837e18d65057e3516a5f6cb yes 100