Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 70 by April 30?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $99k open interest and a massive 58¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 52¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The annualized implied yield exceeds 2500% for both outcomes, indicating severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk for Bitcoin volatility spiking above 70 on the CRVIX index within 15 days. With a realized volatility of 2448% and information arrival rate of 6.3 events per hour, the market appears to be pricing in extreme uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and minimal 7-day price movement (49¢ to 50¢) suggest recent stability may not justify such elevated yields.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix

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Regime

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