Will the Democratic Party win the SC-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing at an extreme 11¢ with a staggering 1,471.7% implied yield, suggesting either deep undervaluation or a highly speculative mispricing in a district that likely leans heavily Republican. With zero 24-hour volume despite $23.4M in open interest and 201 days to expiry, the market appears illiquid and potentially stale, raising questions about whether the 11¢ price reflects genuine probability or merely reflects the last trade executed. The 8/10 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk, warranting caution that this extreme yield may not be achievable given the market's thin liquidity conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade