Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Erin Stewart win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. Stewart is priced at a coin-flip 53¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (290-341%) reflecting the 116-day time horizon and illiquid $17.9k open interest, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable market efficiency.
Analysis
Stewart is priced at a coin-flip 53¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (290-341%) reflecting the 116-day time horizon and illiquid $17.9k open interest, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests reasonable market efficiency. The elevated realized volatility of 252% and vol ratio of 1.45 indicate significant price swings despite modest 24-hour volume of $20.88, pointing to a competitive primary race with meaningful uncertainty about the final field and candidate viability. With information arriving at 0.7 events per hour and neutral regime conditions, this market appears fairly balanced but vulnerable to candidate announcements or polling shifts that could trigger sharp repricing.
Also on kalshi at 53¢(Δ -4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xf67b35a73ee7b84b1427f0d1462ddcf8c3942201c91d9573f192ff19aaba7bbf yes 100