Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing May 20, 2026. This market displays extreme volatility and yield metrics that suggest significant uncertainty ahead of the season finale, with the Yes price surging 52% over seven days to 41¢ while maintaining a wide 15¢ spread and exceptionally high implied yields (1558% for Yes).

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42¢
Bid/Ask 40/43¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $660.225·OI $3,959.583·Closes May 20, 2026·28d remaining
0xf74326b8b41bd86906a9af35fd5ee776649a928ae9e78adff88449904242a11a
7-day price634 snapshots · 23 regime
62¢42¢ current
Apr 819¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market displays extreme volatility and yield metrics that suggest significant uncertainty ahead of the season finale, with the Yes price surging 52% over seven days to 41¢ while maintaining a wide 15¢ spread and exceptionally high implied yields (1558% for Yes). The modest $423 daily volume and $1.1k open interest indicate thin liquidity despite the dramatic price movement, creating potential for sharp swings as the May 20 resolution date approaches with only 34 days remaining and the season actively airing. The 3.5 info arrivals per hour and 748% realized volatility suggest traders are actively responding to episode releases, making this a highly reactive market where each new episode could materially shift probabilities.

Resolution rules

"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1783.9%
IY (No) 935.4%
Adj IY 1699%
CRI 1
RV 448%
VR 0.83
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1783.9%
IY (No)935.4%
Adj IY1699%
CRI1
RV448%
VR0.83
IAR1.2/h
Overround5.7%
LAS0.05

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 5:55:18 PM
Observability mediumEvent type cultural
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:53:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf74326b8b41bd86906a9af35fd5ee776649a928ae9e78adff88449904242a11a yes 100

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