Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

This market is pricing in a 17% probability of Republicans holding exactly 51 seats post-2026, a notably specific outcome that reflects the difficulty of predicting such precise seat counts. The recent 3-cent price increase over seven days (14¢ to 17¢) suggests modest bullish momentum, though the thin 24-hour volume of $49.63 against $20.5M open interest indicates low liquidity relative to the position size, creating potential execution challenges. With over two years until the November 2026 resolution date, the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index suggest stable market conditions, though traders should be cautious given the illiquidity-to-volume ratio.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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