Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 1.2%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $106.46 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 3020% implied yield on the Yes side. The sharp 68% price decline over seven days (from 42¢ to 25¢) combined with 701% realized volatility and a wide 21¢ spread suggests either recent negative information about Japan's growth outlook or thin-market price distortion rather than genuine conviction. With resolution tied to the May 19 release date and just 33 days remaining, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be a meaningful probability signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

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