Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only a 7% probability for 32-35 Republican retirements, yet the asymmetric implied yields (3565% for Yes vs. 20.2% for No) suggest severe undervaluation of the Yes outcome. The sharp 30% price decline over seven days combined with negligible 24-hour volume ($0) and modest open interest ($11,158) indicates illiquidity and potential information lag, making the 3¢ spread particularly wide relative to the thin order book. With 136 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 957%, this appears to be a classic low-liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects difficulty in execution rather than fundamental probability assessment.

Resolution rules

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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