Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of April?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (95%) that Google will close above $300 by end of April 2026, yet shows zero 24-hour volume and a stark asymmetry in implied yields—the "No" side offers an absurd 61,279% yield versus 169.7% for "Yes," suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity. With only 11 days to expiration, $4.5M open interest, and a flat 7-day price chart, this appears to be a stale or abandoned position where the market has likely drifted far from fair value; the extreme Cliff Risk Index of 19 and the "No" side's nonsensical yield indicate the order book is likely extremely thin or one-sided.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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