Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $32K in open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2860% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money contracts with minimal real trading activity, making this price unreliable for forecasting. With nearly two years until resolution and a neutral regime score, this market lacks the liquidity needed for confident prediction-making, though the Republican lean aligns with Arkansas's strong GOP lean in recent cycles.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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