Will the Republican Party win the WI-03 House seat?

This Wisconsin House seat market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $1M open interest, suggesting the $965k position may be stale or concentrated. The 28¢ price implies a heavily Democratic-favored district, yet the 498% implied yield on Republican victory and extraordinary 2191% realized volatility signal either significant model uncertainty or potential mispricing given the 198-day timeframe. The wide 35¢ spread and 8.92 volatility ratio warrant caution—this appears to be a thin, potentially illiquid market where large moves could occur on minimal news flow (4.3 info arrivals per hour).

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade