What is the current probability for "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Game of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1415.7% and 2.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Game of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Game of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that 2026 Game of the Year?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This Fable contract has surged 300% over seven days to 5¢, suggesting growing confidence in the title's award prospects despite minimal liquidity at $20.9k open interest.

██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $287.52·OI $22,694.87·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-FAB

7-day price8 snapshots · 19 regime

4¢4¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This Fable contract has surged 300% over seven days to 5¢, suggesting growing confidence in the title's award prospects despite minimal liquidity at $20.9k open interest. The extreme 1404.9% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the deep discount pricing, though the neutral regime score and moderate 24 cliff risk index suggest this isn't a consensus conviction trade. With 624 days until expiry and only $670 in daily volume, the thin spread masks potential slippage for larger positions seeking exposure to a 2026 Game of the Year winner.

Resolution rules

If Fable has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1415.7%

IY (No) 2.5%

Adj IY 531%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.25

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1415.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	531%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.25	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:07:14 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-FAB yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →