2026 Game of the Year
Leader sits at 71% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Grand Theft Auto VI
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Resident Evil Requiem
Spread
58pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
554 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Game of the Year
2026 Game of the Year?: Grand Theft Auto VI
KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-GTA
2026 Game of the Year?: Resident Evil Requiem
KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-RES
2026 Game of the Year?: Pragmata
KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-PRA
2026 Game of the Year?: Half-Life 3
KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-HAL
Analysis
This 31% probability represents the likelihood that a video game will be named Game of the Year in 2026 by a major awarding body. The aggregate figure is pulled from two venues showing notable disagreement: Kalshi's contracts average 34% while Polymarket's average 5%, suggesting different trader bases may be pricing similar outcomes differently. Key drivers of this probability include the quality and commercial success of major title releases scheduled for 2026, the voting composition and criteria of major award organizations like The Game Awards and BAFTA, and uncertainty around which games will generate sufficient critical and player consensus. The resolution date depends on award announcement timing, typically occurring in November and December 2026. Traders are effectively betting on whether the industry will reach broad agreement on an exceptional game worthy of the year's highest honor.
- ›Major AAA game releases in 2026 and their critical reception scores (Metacritic 90+) versus prior years
- ›Voting eligibility rules and participating studios/publishers in major award ceremonies scheduled for Q4 2026
- ›Historical Game of the Year voting margins and whether any single title has emerged with consensus support by October 2026
- ›Release date clustering and whether meaningful competition exists or one title dominates market share and reviews
- ›The composition of voting bodies (critics, players, industry voters) and their historical preference patterns for specific genres or studios
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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