What is the current probability for "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 288.0% and 12.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $390.85 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 17/24¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $390.85·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-SAM

7-day price3 snapshots · 3 regime

29¢17¢ current

Apr 917¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $390.85 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 7-cent spread combined with a dramatic 41% price decline over seven days (29¢ to 17¢) suggests thin order books and possible panic selling rather than fundamental reassessment of Sam Rockwell's Oscar nomination chances. The 285.8% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high for a prediction market this far from expiry (624 days), indicating either severe mispricing or that traders are demanding substantial compensation for the illiquidity risk.

Resolution rules

If Sam Rockwell has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 288.0%

IY (No) 12.1%

Adj IY 85%

CRI 5

Overround 3.5%

LAS 0.41

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	288.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.41	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:18:11 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTO-27-SAM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →