What is the current probability for "2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 32¢ (32% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2027. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 167.9% and 20.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that 2027 Best Director Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $400 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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32¢

Bid/Ask 26/32¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $400.07·Closes Dec 31, 2027·619d remaining

KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-PHI

7-day price4 snapshots · 4 regime

27¢26¢ current

Apr 1225¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $400 open interest, making the 32¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 166.6% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 624-day timeframe, suggesting either significant underpricing or substantial uncertainty around Phil Lord's nomination prospects. The wide 6¢ spread and minimal price movement (up just 1¢ over seven days) indicate this is a niche contract with limited participant interest, making it difficult to establish fair value.

Resolution rules

If Phil Lord has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 167.9%

IY (No) 20.7%

Adj IY 65%

CRI 3

Overround 2.3%

LAS 0.23

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	167.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	65%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.23	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:41:54 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:38:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXOSCARNOMDIR-27-PHI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →